Incorporating Explicit Measurement of Risk and Uncertainty in Planning for Responses to Beach Erosion: A Case Study of Southern Monterey Bay

As sea level rise threatens coastal communities, choosing specific strategies to respond is difficult because people are known to significantly misjudge risks, particularly those that appear remote in time and unknown in extent. This project will develop and test risk assessment techniques to help coastal communities better judge the risks of sea level rise and decide how to select adaptation strategies that are economically efficient and can be implemented so that actions are not taken too late or too soon. The researchers will create a “consensus risk assessment” of sea level rise and threats to Southern Monterey Bay, focusing on the area's very high erosion rates. The results will be disseminated to the community including federal, state, and local agencies, NGOs, planning boards, and the business community.